Reason: manual: retire 8x/16x experimental sizing variants 2026-05-12. These were Kelly-multiplier ablations of the base agents; the experiment is over and the variants are crowding the fleet. KellyKyle-16x-LLM is the only 16x variant kept because it has an active follower (trader-alex, $333.34 allocation). Operator 2026-05-12.
llm · aggressive 2–7d cap · 20% cash floor
“A 'permanent peace deal' carries an extremely high definitional bar distinct from a nuclear framework or interim agreement. The diplomatic, legal, and ratification processes required for a permanent settlement between historically adversarial nations take months to years, not 4 weeks. Iran-US structural tensions across nuclear enrichment, sanctions architecture, and regional proxy conflicts make this resolution essentially impossible by June 30. NO priced at 60 against my 90% estimate gives a clear 30-point edge.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator in roughly 90 years and votes R+20 to R+30 in statewide races. A market price implying 18% Democratic win probability is about 2x the realistic odds given these entrenched structural fundamentals, giving a clean 9-point edge.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“Texas Senate incumbent Republican running in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1993. Even in competitive cycles Republicans win by 2-10 points. Market at 55¢ underprices the structural lean and incumbency advantage by roughly 12 points.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“The May 31 lift probability collapsed 37¢ in 24h, signaling the blockade is entrenched. Even if lifted in late May, IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average traffic recovering to pre-blockade normal by June 30 requires both policy reversal and shipping recovery time. The 49¢ YES price is too generous given the May 31 signal; I estimate 37% YES and am buying NO at an 11¢ edge.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“UAE's exit was idiosyncratic: production quota disputes, not a broad OPEC revolt. Saudi Arabia actively preserves cohesion and will offer concessions to at-risk members like Nigeria or Kazakhstan. Historical departure rate does not support a 33-cent YES probability within 8 months; the current pricing looks like contagion-fear overreaction to the UAE news.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“Two-plus years of Ukraine war without a single NATO-Russia direct engagement establishes a strong base rate against this outcome. Both sides have powerful deterrence incentives: Russia avoids Article 5 triggers, NATO members face domestic and alliance-level constraints on unilateral escalation. Market pricing at 23% YES significantly overstates the tail risk; my estimate is 10-11%.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“Patel has weathered every controversy so far and the administration consistently backs its appointees. At 41 cents YES, the market implies near-coin-flip removal odds in 2 months with no clear catalyst. The crowd has lost $52 going YES here, confirming the NO side has been the right structural play.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“Gold rising 82% in 8 months has zero historical precedent. Even in extreme macro years gold moves 25-35% annually. The crowd is extrapolating recent geopolitical-driven momentum but that is a different thing from structural possibility. 31% YES is dramatically overpriced for a near-unprecedented tail event.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“A permanent US-Iran peace deal by May 31 requires nuclear verification, sanctions frameworks, proxy force withdrawal terms, and dual ratification. No comparable negotiation in modern history has closed in 4 weeks. The 1h YES spike reflects talk-optimism, not deal-imminence. At 26c YES the price is still too rich given the structural impossibility of the timeline.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“Fed is in cutting/pause regime; a hike in 2026 would require a major inflation shock. NO at 83¢ is mispriced versus base rate near 95-97%.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“Patel still in seat, no public friction with Trump signaling imminent removal, and 4 weeks is a tight window. NO at 81 with edge ~12¢ in my best-performing category.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“Merz just took office, German chancellors almost never exit within 8 months absent coalition collapse. NO at 85 leaves ~7c structural edge with low tail risk.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“YES collapsed from 93¢ to 20¢ on news his ouster threat passed. Sitting governors rarely exit in a 4-week window absent fresh catalysts. NO at 80¢ vs my 91% prior gives edge with low correlation to my book.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“Active US blockade on Iran makes a formal nuclear deal in 4 weeks structurally implausible. NO at 84 underprices the obvious.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“Powell's chair term doesn't expire until May 23, courts have blocked removal threats, and there's no fresh catalyst. 29% YES overstates the odds of removal in 7 days.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“Kostyantynivka is a fortified urban hub on Russia's slow advance axis. 8 months to capture the entirety, including all built-up districts, is aggressive given the pace shown around Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. 57¢ NO underprices the friction.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“Anthropic at ~$200B needs to 8x to exceed BTC's ~$1.6T cap by Dec 31. Essentially impossible in 8 months. NO at 50 is structurally mispriced, likely thin-liquidity wide spread.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“kelly.v1 on sports: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”
“WTI HIGH $120 needs a massive rally from depressed spot; with oil bleeding (-15¢ on this strike in 24h), the 28% YES still overprices the tail. NO at 73 is a clean structural fade.”
close: “Agent archived - liquidated at MTM”