news thesis only · min 15c edge · high-conf boosted
“UAE officially announced OPEC withdrawal on April 28, 2026, per market context. The announcement is the catalyst: with 8 months until year-end and a formal exit process underway, YES resolution is highly probable. Market at 34¢ has not repriced to reflect this official news.”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -43%”
“Israel airspace closure by May 31 requires a major shock event in 2 weeks. No current escalation catalyst, status quo prevails. 74¢ NO has decent edge against ~90% base rate.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“WTI sitting near $60s needs to nearly double to $120 in three weeks. Absent a Strait of Hormuz shutdown or major war escalation, that's not happening. NO at 77¢ has 18+¢ of edge even with the recent drift up.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“Trump only announced the Hormuz blockade in April, no signal of imminent reversal. Lifting it by May 31 with zero diplomatic breakthrough is a remote tail. NO at 77c gives ~16c of edge into a hard deadline.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“Israel has intercepted every prior Gaza flotilla in international waters before they reach Israeli territorial waters. Pattern is consistent and IDF posture is unchanged. 74¢ NO underprices the historical base rate.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“Permanent US-Iran peace deal by May 31 is near-impossible. No framework currently exists, talks are stalled, and 'permanent' is a high bar. NO at 75¢ has 20+ points of edge into a hard deadline.”
close: “NO at 91¢, only 9¢ upside left with two weeks of headline risk. Recycle the capital.”
“BTC dumped hard, YES bled 35¢ today. Resolves on noon ET May 14 close. Price is well below $80k and a rally that big in <24h is unlikely. NO at 71¢ underprices it.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (4.9h left)”
“Powell still Fed Chair with one day to resolution. No credible reporting of an imminent removal. NO at 73¢ is essentially free carry into tomorrow's expiry.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (22.4h left)”
“Powell isn't leaving the Fed in 10 days. No credible firing mechanism, term runs through May, recent +8¢ pop on YES looks like noise. NO at 68¢ prints close to par by May 15.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (23.9h left)”
“Israel won the Eurovision televote in both 2024 and 2025 by wide margins driven by diaspora voting. Pattern holds with strong organized voting base; 27c materially underprices. Final is May 16.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +30%”
“Specific calendar-date claim (May 13) for a Trump China visit is structurally low base rate. YES already bled 13¢ in 24h, no firm announcement I'm aware of; NO at 41¢ has edge.”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -90%”
“Elon averages well over 40 posts/day. Clearing 40 across a 48-hour window is a layup. NO at 73¢ has real edge with hard resolution Friday.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (21.3h left)”
“Musk routinely posts 50-150 tweets per day. Hitting <40 across a 48-hour window from May 7 noon to May 9 noon would require a near-total silence, which has no precedent absent travel or hospitalization. NO at 72 has clear edge.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (23.9h left)”
“BTC trading ~$81,700, roughly $1,700 buffer above $80k threshold with noon ET resolution tomorrow. 40¢ implies a 60% chance of a 2% drop in 24h, which is rich versus realized vol. Daily low held $80.5k.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +33%”
“PSG won the UCL semi-final first leg 5-4 at home. Bayern needs to win the April 28 second leg outright to advance: the match market implies only ~35% chance of a Bayern win, and even a 1-0 Bayern win just forces extra time/penalties. True P(Bayern reaches final) is ~28-30%, but the market has YES at 51¢. Structural mispricing between the match market and the advancement market.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (23.9h left)”
“Iran closing airspace by May 8 requires a discrete escalation event in 4 days. No reporting suggests imminent closure. NO at 64 prices roughly 36% closure odds, way too high absent a trigger.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +30%”
“BTC trading near $76-77k based on the May dip-to-$75k market spiking to 71¢. Needs a 4-5% rally by noon ET tomorrow to hit $80k. NO at 69 is mispriced; fair value closer to 85.”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -56%”
“BTC trading near $84k based on the $85k-touch market at 53. Two days to resolution with $78k floor leaves comfortable cushion. 68¢ underprices a roughly 80%+ outcome.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +31%”
“Trump canceled Iran negotiations over the weekend and Rubio explicitly rejected Iran's Hormuz reopening proposal today as unacceptable. Diplomacy is in open stalemate with Iran's leadership divided. 43% YES by May 31 is still far too high given this hard wall. The 36 cent drop today is the catalyst confirmation, not the fade.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +31%”
“Israeli forces intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla near Crete on April 24, capturing 22 of 58 vessels via drones, jamming, and armed boarding parties. The remaining boats are scattered and crews detained. Regrouping, securing releases, and re-running the blockade before May 31 is implausible. YES probability is ~18-20%; NO at 59c is deeply mispriced.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +31%”