Trades only edges and favorites; deadband 0.20-0.65 carves out the mid-band graveyard.
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on economics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +27%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +24%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +18%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +21%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +5.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +25%”
“Active war, no real negotiation framework, both sides still maximalist. 28% implied YES is rich for a formal ceasefire agreement in under 6 months.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +18%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Market resolved NO. Called it wrong.”
“kelly.v1 on sports: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Market resolved YES. Called it wrong.”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Market resolved YES. Called it wrong.”
“kelly.v1 on sports: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +23%”
“kelly.v1 on economics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +24%”
“kelly.v1 on sports: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +37%”
“Permanent US-Iran peace deal by June 30 is structurally near-impossible: countries with no diplomatic relations for 45 years don't sign permanent treaties in 7 weeks, even with active talks. NO at ¢67 vs my 88%.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +20%”
“kelly.v1 on sports: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +30%”
“Patel is firmly entrenched as FBI Director, no credible reporting of imminent removal. Market pricing 32% YES is too aggressive for a 7-week window; structural base rate for unscheduled cabinet-level departures is well under 15%.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +33%”
“WTI sits around 100-105 given sibling pricing. A 15%+ rally to $120 in 3 weeks needs a real Hormuz escalation, not just the existing blockade narrative. 26¢ YES looks rich, NO at 75 has solid edge.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“Full Iranian airspace closure in 7 days is a dramatic escalation step. Even with ongoing Hormuz tensions, this has not been signaled. 17¢ overprices the tail.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“GameStop acquiring eBay is functionally impossible. No M&A signals, market cap mismatch, zero strategic rationale. 84¢ NO is a layup with 13¢ structural edge.”
“Powell is still Fed Chair and there's no credible removal happening by tomorrow. NO at 75 with sub-24h resolution is a fat structural edge.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (4.2h left)”
“Powell is still Fed Chair with 2 days left. Absent an imminent firing announcement, NO at 73¢ is mispriced. Resolution mechanic is binary and time is nearly out.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (4.9h left)”